Their wide receivers are averaging the NFL’s fourth-fewest air yards per target, at just 6.6. Meanwhile, Green Bay pass-catchers are running screen routes at the highest clip in the league, and short out routes at the second-highest. No team has run fewer deep outs - and no Packers receiver has even run an out route of 20 yards or deeper, let alone had Rodgers throw it his way. But of the 1,041 routes Packers pass-catchers have run so far this year, only 35 were slow-developing deep outs or deep ins.
The deep out is a classic test of quarterback arm strength, and ESPN’s 2021 “Quarterback Council” declared Rodgers’s arm the third-strongest in the league. Look into the Packer gameplan a little more deeply, and there’s evidence LaFleur is well aware of what his offense can and can’t do. Green Bay quarterbacks (i.e., mostly Rodgers) have only been sacked the 18th-most frequently - but that’s because they’ve gotten rid of the ball in a lightning-quick average of 2.49 seconds, faster than all but Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Packers offensive line has been blitzed on the lowest share of dropbacks in the NFL, yet they’ve surrendered the seventh-highest pressure rate. How Other Candidates Are Reacting To Trump’s Federal Indictment (He has just the 14th-most passing yards on those attempts.) As a result, the snaps Green Bay has devoted to Rodgers’ bombs - he’s thrown the league’s fourth-most passes of 20 or more yards - have drastically underproduced. When Rodgers airs it out this season, he ranks 21st in raw QBR, 27th in yards per dropback, 18th in completion percentage over expected and 23rd in EPA per dropback.
He still throws more deep balls than the NFL average over the past four seasons, but he does it much less effectively. *Among quarterbacks qualified for ESPN’s Total QBR leaderboard. Share of attempts traveling 20 or more air yards, and efficiency statistics on these passes, for Aaron Rodgers by season(s)ĬPOE is completion percentage over expected. Rodgers is throwing deep less often - and less effectively On a league-high 229 pass attempts of 20 or more air yards, Rodgers ranked highly in stats like passing EPA per dropback (second) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (first): What’s more, Rodgers was very effective on those throws. The new coach’s fresh ideas immediately paid off: Over LaFleur’s first three years, Rodgers chucked deep balls of 20-plus air yards at a rate higher than any quarterback not named Jameis Winston, Justin Fields or Russell Wilson. LeFleur was brought in to revitalize Rodgers and the Packers’ “stale” offense, as the star QB had been criticized for being too “risk-averse” under former coach Mike McCarthy. Without them, the Packers are much easier to defend - and nothing the rest of the offense is doing seems capable of replacing them. But the big-time throws that have been Rodgers’s hallmark throughout his career are missing. Sure, he’s still good at avoiding interceptions, with the seventh-lowest rate in the league, and he checks in with the seventh-highest completion rate. Rodgers’s overall statistical effectiveness has been extremely lacking by his standards: He’s below league average in Total QBR, yards per attempt and expected points added per dropback, according to ESPN’s Stats & Information Group. After winning 13 games in each of LaFleur’s first three seasons, the Packers will have to go 10-1 from here on out to hit that mark again - a task that will be near impossible if Rodgers doesn’t return to elite form. 1 Though they’ve never failed to win the NFC North under LaFleur, they’re already two games behind the Minnesota Vikings. These offensive struggles are largely why Green Bay dropped back-to-back home games to the New York Giants and New York Jets, starting the first losing streak of head coach Matt LaFleur’s career. But whatever the causes or excuses, the results are inarguable: The Packers’ four-time NFL MVP quarterback is playing like a mediocre signal-caller, and the team’s offense is below average. Aaron Rodgers’ struggles throwing the deep ball have put the Packers in a tough spot.Īaron Rodgers could point to any number of reasons why his Green Bay Packers have started the season 3-3 - his sore thumb, terrible offensive line play, a sudden relapse of the special-teams issues that plagued the team in 2021.
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